Some numbers related to Ice Breaker game and its RTP
iStripper에 관한 모든 것
2 일수 이전, 6 답변
First of all, the purpose of this topic is purely informational. All figures and assumptions presented here are based either on the game's published rules and descriptions or on my own observed results and credit balance. The calculations and conclusions are provided for discussion purposes and are open to individual interpretation. No controversy is intended.
Including the RTP is useful for transparency. However, some aspects of the available data remain open to question. At the same time, the available data can be used to estimate the value that the company appears to assign to a joker card.
According to the publicly available instructions, the RTP of this game is 90%. In other words, if a customer wagers a sufficiently large number of credits, say N, the expected return should be approximately 0.9N, corresponding to an expected loss of 0.1N credits.
In my case, I started with roughly 5,700 credits and, after 200 plays (at a cost of 25 credits each), I ended up with approximately 3,200 credits. This corresponds to a net loss of about 2,500 credits after wagering a total of 5,000 credits (200 × 25).
Taken at face value, these figures suggest an RTP much closer to 50% than to 90%. However, this calculation does not yet account for the non-credit rewards, namely gift cards and joker cards. After those 200 plays, I had obtained 15 gift cards and 2 joker cards.
The value of a gift card depends on how it is used and on the user's rank, but a reasonable estimate places its value somewhere between 12 and 30 credits. For the sake of illustration, let us assign each gift card its midpoint value of 21 credits. In that case, the 15 gift cards would represent an additional value of 315 credits (15 × 21), reducing the effective loss from approximately 2,500 credits to approximately 2,185 credits.
Even after accounting for the gift cards, and ignoring the joker cards for the moment, the observed figures would still appear difficult to reconcile with an RTP of 90%.
If the RTP were indeed 90%, the expected loss after wagering 5,000 credits would be approximately 500 credits (0.1 × 5000), rather than the 2,185-credit effective loss obtained after accounting for the gift cards. Thus, if the advertised RTP is accurate and the previous assumptions hold, the difference would have to be explained by the value assigned to the two joker cards:
2J ≈ 2,185 - 500,
which yields
J ≈ 842.5.
If the previous assumptions are accepted and the uncertainty in the gift-card valuation is taken into account, the implied value of a joker card lies approximately between 775 and 910 credits per unit. These bounds are obtained by assuming gift-card values of 30 Cr. and 12 Cr., respectively.
It's worth noting that all of the above calculations disregard the current event-specific incentives, namely the opportunity to obtain the SEC and EX cards. Nevertheless, if the game is expected to be available in other contexts under the same rules and advertised RTP, then excluding the value of the EX card from the RTP analysis seems justified.
